By Cindy Alvarez & Bob Newkirk “There is no Ground Hog Day, when all the economists come out from the tunnel and declare the recession is over. They have a retroactive, seasonally-adjusted Ground Hog Day.”– Peter Lynch The recent debate about whether the economy is or is not already in a recession can be a...

By Cindy Alvarez & Bob Newkirk “The trend is your friend … until the end when it bends.”– Ed Seykota Day trading by individual investors grew substantially during the pandemic. People stayed at home, spent more time online, and, in some cases, had additional funds to spend. These effects encouraged day trading, as did the...

This article was written before stock indices moved into a bear market rather than a correction.However, the same principles presented continue to apply. “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”– Robert Arnott The market declines this year are painful. However, these types of declines are surprisinglyfrequent. Understanding how to respond to market corrections is...

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.”– Sir John Templeton Speculation about a potential recession has been prominent in recent financial reporting. The goodnews is that multiple elements of the U.S. economy are healthy and provide an economic tailwind forthe future. The bad news is that actions by the Federal...

Will the Economic War with Russia Cause a U.S. Recession? “In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts, the Depression, a dozen or so recessions and financial panics, oil shocks, a flu epidemic, and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from...

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” ~Milton Friedman Inflation is at 7%, its highest level since 1982. The ability of Congress or the Biden Administration to curb inflation is limited, at best. Responsibility for addressing inflation will fall to the arm of the federal government primarily responsible for monetary policy, the Federal Reserve...

Sector investments perform differently during the various phases of the economic cycle. Successfully rotating – or re-allocating – investments from one economic sector depends on a timely read of future macroeconomic conditions. “Buy cheap and sell dear.” Benjamin Graham You may have heard of the “reopening” or “recovery” play in the stock market earlier this...

Money flowed into growth-oriented technology investments in 2020. 2021 investing has a different look. Here’s a way to think about a rotation from growth to value investing when inflation heats up. In our last two articles, we described the recent worries about higher inflation, and the effects an increase in inflation has on stock and...

“The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital.” ~Warren Buffet How does inflation “consume” an investor’s capital and act as a type of “tax”? As inflation increases, the actual value...

By Cindy Alvarez – Senior Wealth Management Advisor It is usually the fall season when we begin to think about the year coming to an end, and what we might do during this final quarter to improve our tax picture. Simply put, we begin to think about tax deductions. What can we do to decrease...